SuperFun Toys Case Study

oDue Oct 30, 6:00 PM (PST)

oNot Submitted


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Assignment Files


Purpose of Assignment

The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to make managerial decisions using a case study on Normal Distribution. This case uses concepts from Weeks 1 and 2. It provides students an opportunity to perform sensitivity analysis and make a decision while providing their own rationale. This assignment also shows students that statistics is rarely used by itself. It shows tight integration of statistics with product management.

Assignment Steps

Resources: Microsoft Excel®, SuperFun Toys Case Study, SuperFun Toys Case Study Data Set

Review the SuperFun Toys Case Study and Data Set.

Develop a ~750-word case study analysis including the following:

Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution.

Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation. Hint: To find the standard deviation, think Empirical Rule covered in Week 1.

Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team (i.e. 15,000; 18,000; 24,000; 28,000).

Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: pessimistic in which sales are 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales are 20,000 units, and optimistic in which sales are 30,000 units.

One of SuperFun’s managers felt the profit potential was so great the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock- outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?

Format your assignment consistent with a managerial report.

Note: pay special attention to your reporting, even of an excel sheet. Treat it as a report you are submitting to a coleague or supervisor who is infinitely ignorant and infinitly intelligent. Do not let the reader “pick and choose” the relevant parts. Include only what is relevant, in a crystal clear fashion.

Click the Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.

Note: Grades are awarded based upon individual contributions to the Learning Team assignment. Each Learning Team member will receive a grade based upon his/her contributions to the team assignment at large (see team participation and contribution assignment in week 6). Not all students may receive the same grade for the team assignments. See instructor’s poolicies document and the above mentioned week 6 assignment for team effort grading principles.

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